Thu, Feb 8, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 13 | 17 | 010 | 220 |
| NYI | 314 | 37 | 03 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07NYINoah DobsonAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 6:42TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Darren Raddysh · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 14:07NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Bo Horvat · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 18:35NYIKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Mike Reilly, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 1:14TBLBrandon HagelPPAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 7:10NYIRyan PulockPPAssists: Pierre Engvall · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P2 8:18NYIBo HorvatAssists: Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech · Snap, 0.05 xG2–5
- P2 15:22NYICasey CizikasUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:28TBLBrandon Hagel: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:13TBLNick Paul: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:55NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:17TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:02TBLTyler Motte: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:34NYIMatt Martin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCirelli – Hagel – Eyssimont6:37
xG 0.34–0.09 (78%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Watson – Glendening – Motte4:44
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel2:43
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Motte – Sheary – Eyssimont2:14
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – Lilleberg10:41
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh12:32
xG 0.57–0.52 (52%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- de Haan – Cernak4:45
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Engvall9:14
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:31
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal10:40
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 8–12goals 2–1
- Pageau – Wahlstrom – Holmstrom7:30
xG 0.05–0.35 (12%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock9:52
xG 0.54–0.21 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 3–1
- Mayfield – Pelech3:03
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Reilly – Mayfield15:20
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).