Sat, Feb 10, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vancouver Canucks 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 08 | 312 | 011 | 00 | 331 |
| DET | 110 | 08 | 28 | 12 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:45DETLucas RaymondAssists: David Perron, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 1:09VANNils HoglanderAssists: Filip Hronek, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 11:10VANFilip HronekAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 13:27VANElias PetterssonAssists: Pius Suter, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 2:34DETDaniel SprongPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Joseph Veleno · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 7:51DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Jake Walman, Christian Fischer · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 0:23DETJake WalmanGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 10:08DETDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:40VANQuinn Hughes: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:40DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:33VANNikita Zadorov: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:11VANNikita Zadorov: Match penalty5 min
- P2 9:03VANFilip Hronek: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:51DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:51DETLucas Raymond: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:51VANNils Hoglander: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:51DETAlex DeBrincat: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:51VANIan Cole: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 0:39VANNils Hoglander: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:48DETDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P3 18:49VANDakota Joshua: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:49DETMoritz Seider: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:49VANTeddy Blueger: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:49DETMichael Rasmussen: Roughing2 min
- OT 0:23VANQuinn Hughes: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Lindholm – Boeser10:40
xG 0.43–0.14 (76%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Suter – Hoglander9:05
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 2–1
- Di Giuseppe – Mikheyev – Aman4:07
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland8:14
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Myers – Hronek5:07
xG 0.20–0.17 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Juulsen4:35
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Myers7:00
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Fischer – Rasmussen9:36
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Fabbri – Sprong – Veleno4:13
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond8:02
xG 0.06–0.25 (18%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Perron – Kane – Compher10:47
xG 0.05–0.62 (8%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Gostisbehere8:04
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Maatta – Walman2:25
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Walman – Seider9:55
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).