Sat, Feb 10, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Calgary Flames 5, New York Islanders 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 213 | 23 | 524 |
| NYI | 06 | 013 | 217 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Jacob Markstrom, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 8:38CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 15:16CGYMacKenzie WeegarGWGAssists: Walker Duehr, Jakob Pelletier · Slap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 4:00NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Noah Dobson, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 15:59CGYBlake ColemanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–1
- P3 17:28NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 19:38CGYMacKenzie WeegarENAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 7:40NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:38NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:38NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:38CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:38CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:35CGYConnor Zary: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko11:03
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Rooney – Pelletier – Duehr8:02
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane15:28
xG 0.43–0.35 (56%)attempts 21–18goals 1–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary11:09
xG 0.12–0.79 (14%)attempts 7–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Andersson18:39
xG 0.93–0.63 (59%)attempts 28–19goals 1–0
- Kylington – Pachal10:59
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hanifin19:37
xG 0.12–0.68 (15%)attempts 12–22goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Engvall11:03
xG 0.65–0.04 (94%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal11:39
xG 0.52–0.39 (58%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Horvat – Engvall – Barzal3:34
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Pageau – Wahlstrom – Holmstrom9:25
xG 0.06–0.26 (18%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock14:39
xG 0.32–0.14 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Reilly – Dobson7:37
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Aho – Dobson10:14
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).