Sat, Feb 10, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 113 | 111 | 213 | 437 |
| CBJ | 09 | 014 | 212 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:40TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P2 0:49TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brandon Hagel, Nick Paul · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P3 0:23TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 12:22CBJBoone JennerAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 15:50CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 19:12TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.66 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 13:32CBJKent Johnson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 5:22TBLErik Cernak: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:50CBJDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:50TBLDarren Raddysh: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:50CBJDamon Severson: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:05TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min
- P3 11:26TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:26TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:26CBJIvan Provorov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:26CBJIvan Provorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39TBLTyler Motte: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMotte – Sheary – Eyssimont7:07
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel11:49
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point15:48
xG 0.89–1.25 (42%)attempts 22–21goals 0–1
- Glendening – Barré-Boulet – Chaffee7:16
xG 0.04–0.40 (8%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Cernak16:28
xG 0.77–0.55 (58%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Hedman – Perbix2:35
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg9:36
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Jenner – Chinakhov6:05
xG 0.74–0.33 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Danforth8:08
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Danforth – Texier – Sillinger2:49
xG 0.07–0.07 (48%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Johnson6:04
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov13:03
xG 0.76–0.32 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Werenski – Boqvist16:12
xG 1.12–1.32 (46%)attempts 19–22goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Bean13:38
xG 0.58–0.80 (42%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).