Sun, Feb 11, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
St. Louis Blues 7, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 315 | 110 | 311 | 736 |
| MTL | 18 | 013 | 111 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:25STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 5:05STLColton ParaykoAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 10:23MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 15:20STLJordan KyrouPPGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 17:49STLNathan WalkerAssists: Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 0:31STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Nick Leddy, Jake Neighbours · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 3:06MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: David Savard, Jayden Struble · Deflected, 0.11 xG5–2
- P3 7:14STLJake NeighboursPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Torey Krug · Bat, 0.30 xG6–2
- P3 15:33STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Thomas, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.08 xG7–2
Penalties (17)
- P1 5:18STLSammy Blais: Boarding5 min
- P1 5:18STLSammy Blais: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 15:13MTLJayden Struble: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:12MTLNick Suzuki: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:11STLOskar Sundqvist: Embellishment2 min
- P2 5:11MTLKaiden Guhle: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:11STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:13MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Holding2 min
- P2 19:27MTLMichael Pezzetta: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:39STLTorey Krug: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:39MTLJoel Armia: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:43MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:40STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:23MTLJayden Struble: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:23STLPavel Buchnevich: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:00STLJake Neighbours: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:00MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sundqvist won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas8:47
xG 0.78–0.29 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Hayes – Saad – Kapanen2:35
xG 0.06–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko9:41
xG 0.11–0.51 (18%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kapanen – Neighbours10:45
xG 0.23–0.93 (19%)attempts 6–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko15:06
xG 0.68–0.39 (64%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Krug – Kessel12:21
xG 0.92–0.95 (49%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Scandella – Rosen10:51
xG 0.18–0.99 (15%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGignac – Pezzetta – Ylonen6:47
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Armia – Newhook – Roy7:50
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:25
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Pearson – Anderson – Evans10:46
xG 0.47–0.44 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Matheson2:00
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Guhle4:21
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Matheson – Kovacevic5:18
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).