Sun, Feb 11, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Vancouver Canucks 3, Washington Capitals 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 110 | 19 | 07 | 13 | 329 |
| WSH | 17 | 115 | 08 | 03 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08WSHNic DowdAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Rasmus Sandin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 11:09VANConor GarlandAssists: Noah Juulsen · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 7:37WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 8:48VANNils HoglanderAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 4:55VANJ.T. MillerGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.27 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:38WSHT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:49VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P2 4:42WSHConnor McMichael: Holding2 min
- P2 16:45VANMark Friedman: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:57WSHBeck Malenstyn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Joshua – Garland8:33
xG 0.56–0.06 (90%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Di Giuseppe – Mikheyev – Aman5:39
xG 0.02–0.17 (9%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Suter – Hoglander8:34
xG 0.18–0.39 (31%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Miller – Lindholm – Boeser11:33
xG 0.60–1.12 (35%)attempts 13–24goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Juulsen2:04
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Myers12:53
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 7–11goals 1–2
- Friedman – Juulsen8:22
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMantha – McMichael – Protas10:12
xG 0.77–0.19 (80%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Strome11:48
xG 0.56–0.66 (46%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Sgarbossa – Wilson8:05
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn9:40
xG 0.25–0.44 (37%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Fehérváry5:56
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Jensen – Sandin7:36
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Carlson – Sandin2:46
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).