Tue, Feb 13, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Boston Bruins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 16 | 19 | 09 | 01 | 1 | 325 |
| BOS | 011 | 211 | 010 | 06 | 0 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21TBLErik CernakAssists: Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 1:06TBLNikita KucherovPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 2:04BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 16:23BOSJames van RiemsdykAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BOS Jake DeBrusk stopped
- 2. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 3. BOS Charlie Coyle stopped
- 4. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 5. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:12TBLHaydn Fleury: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:11BOSDanton Heinen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:51BOSJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:45TBLMitchell Chaffee: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:50TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:37TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:07BOSPavel Zacha: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:14TBLLuke Glendening: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 4:57TBLAnthony Cirelli: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Cirelli – Hagel6:12
xG 0.36–0.09 (81%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel2:28
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Glendening – Jeannot – Chaffee4:21
xG 0.06–0.06 (48%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Motte – Sheary – Eyssimont3:58
xG 0.12–0.15 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh12:20
xG 0.90–0.21 (81%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Perbix – Lilleberg8:47
xG 0.09–0.16 (35%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Fleury – Raddysh2:29
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Steen – Boqvist6:47
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Zacha – DeBrusk – Frederic8:59
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 15–4goals 0–1
- Marchand – Coyle – Pastrnak8:18
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Richard – Geekie8:29
xG 0.07–0.46 (13%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo12:57
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Forbort9:01
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy3:00
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).