Tue, Feb 13, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 16 | 217 | 017 | 340 |
| OTT | 310 | 29 | 111 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 9:48OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Josh Norris, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 10:36OTTBrady TkachukUnassisted · Bat, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 14:46OTTClaude GirouxSHAssists: Parker Kelly · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 5:37OTTRidly GreigGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Shane Pinto · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 10:41CBJBoone JennerAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 13:54CBJJack RoslovicAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Jake Bean · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P2 16:48OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–5
- P3 19:52OTTErik BrannstromENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:28CBJErik Gudbranson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:27OTTJakob Chychrun: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P1 14:27CBJMathieu Olivier: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:27OTTJakob Chychrun: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:03CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:20OTTThomas Chabot: Interference2 min
- P2 7:37CBJZach Werenski: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:36CBJZach Werenski: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:02OTTTravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:02OTTRidly Greig: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:02CBJDmitri Voronkov: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:08OTTShane Pinto: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:26CBJErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Jenner – Roslovic12:59
xG 0.97–0.29 (77%)attempts 22–8goals 2–1
- Kuraly – Olivier – Danforth4:55
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Johnson5:15
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Texier – Bemstrom – Sillinger5:21
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov11:54
xG 0.68–0.35 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Bean9:24
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Werenski2:00
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Joseph – Stützle9:44
xG 1.12–0.21 (84%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Pinto – Greig9:12
xG 0.38–0.56 (41%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk7:46
xG 0.09–0.40 (19%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Kastelic – Kelly3:30
xG 0.05–0.52 (8%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Brannstrom5:01
xG 0.65–0.25 (72%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Brannstrom5:17
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Chabot – Chychrun2:24
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).