Tue, Feb 13, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Colorado Avalanche 6, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 210 | 212 | 215 | 637 |
| WSH | 212 | 06 | 19 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46COLRoss ColtonAssists: Miles Wood, Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 4:57COLDevon ToewsAssists: Ryan Johansen, Andrew Cogliano · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 9:16WSHBeck MalenstynAssists: Martin Fehérváry, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P1 10:00WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 8:50COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Ross Colton, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 17:03COLMikko RantanenPPGWGAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 9:00WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Anthony Mantha · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 19:01COLArtturi LehkonenENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.74 xG5–3
- P3 19:27COLMiles WoodENAssists: Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.45 xG6–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:47COLNathan MacKinnon: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:57WSHT.J. Oshie: Holding2 min
- P2 16:20WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 19:56COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:12WSHNic Dowd: Holding2 min
- P3 8:00COLJosh Manson: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:27WSHJohn Carlson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Lehkonen – Colton7:33
xG 0.51–0.10 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:07
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen14:04
xG 0.70–0.70 (50%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Johansen – MacDermid4:37
xG 0.05–0.09 (36%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Byram8:41
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Johnson – Manson2:25
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Byram2:30
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Strome11:45
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas5:02
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 1–2
- Pacioretty – Sgarbossa – Aube-Kubel7:38
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Dowd – Wilson – Malenstyn11:55
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Sandin13:15
xG 0.87–0.43 (67%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Bear9:15
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
- Carlson – Fehérváry16:09
xG 0.64–0.66 (49%)attempts 17–21goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).