Tue, Feb 13, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New Jersey Devils 4, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 022 | 112 | 313 | 447 |
| NSH | 112 | 110 | 010 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04NSHRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Cody Glass, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 1:30NJDJack HughesAssists: Luke Hughes, John Marino · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 7:01NSHTommy NovakAssists: Roman Josi, Cody Glass · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 2:16NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt, Ondrej Palat · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 14:44NJDTimo MeierGWGAssists: Curtis Lazar, Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–2
- P3 19:21NJDNico HischierENAssists: Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.58 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:26NJDTomas Nosek: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:36NSHJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:53NJDErik Haula: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:53NSHLuke Evangelista: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:35NSHLuke Schenn: Holding2 min
- P3 3:57NJDNathan Bastian: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hischier12:20
xG 1.69–0.06 (96%)attempts 26–4goals 1–0
- Lazar – Meier – Mercer10:08
xG 1.63–0.15 (92%)attempts 29–10goals 1–0
- Haula – Toffoli – Hughes12:09
xG 0.78–0.67 (54%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Nosek – Bastian – Holtz4:03
xG 0.10–0.23 (29%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBahl – Nemec13:37
xG 1.91–0.79 (71%)attempts 25–14goals 2–0
- Marino – Hughes16:11
xG 1.21–0.54 (69%)attempts 27–13goals 0–0
- Smith – Miller12:04
xG 0.85–0.33 (72%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Smith8:21
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- McCarron – Novak – Glass5:29
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Glass4:02
xG 0.25–0.32 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Afanasyev – Evangelista4:08
xG 0.15–0.46 (25%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- McDonagh – Schenn13:05
xG 0.77–0.77 (50%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Josi – Barrie15:55
xG 0.72–1.38 (34%)attempts 17–35goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Carrier13:28
xG 0.33–1.37 (19%)attempts 7–25goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).