Wed, Feb 14, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 04 | 412 | 17 | 523 |
| PIT | 03 | 111 | 113 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:28FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:02FLAJonah GadjovichAssists: Brandon Montour, Kevin Stenlund · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 8:27FLAAaron EkbladPPGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 13:02FLAAnton LundellAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–0
- P2 15:24PITBryan RustAssists: Jake Guentzel, Chad Ruhwedel · Deflected, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 5:35FLAAnton LundellAssists: Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 6:07PITJohn LudvigAssists: Drew O'Connor, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:56FLARyan Lomberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:14FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:00FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:22FLAEvan Rodrigues: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:45PITMarcus Pettersson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:24FLARyan Lomberg: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 17:47PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart13:09
xG 0.85–0.54 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell9:38
xG 0.24–0.08 (75%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Gadjovich4:11
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
- Cousins – Bennett – Tkachuk9:10
xG 0.22–0.59 (27%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling12:58
xG 1.10–0.41 (73%)attempts 17–10goals 2–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Kulikov6:49
xG 0.20–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Montour3:51
xG 0.08–0.00 (96%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Eller – White2:29
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Rakell – O'Connor5:44
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Malkin – Smith – Puljujarvi9:45
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell3:09
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Ludvig4:52
xG 0.49–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Letang – Joseph3:15
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Graves2:58
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).