Wed, Feb 14, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Minnesota Wild 3, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 120 | 110 | 113 | 343 |
| ARI | 07 | 010 | 19 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:01MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 19:39MINJonas BrodinGWGAssists: Connor Dewar, Marc-Andre Fleury · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 5:21ARILogan CooleyAssists: Jack McBain, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 11:04MINMatt BoldyAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:16MINFrederick Gaudreau: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:15MINDakota Mermis: Holding2 min
- P1 13:09ARIJ.J. Moser: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:53ARIMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P2 9:43ARINick Schmaltz: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00MINJonas Brodin: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:58ARIMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:58ARITravis Dermott: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy11:55
xG 0.58–0.38 (61%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Lettieri – Dewar – Lucchini6:52
xG 0.48–0.34 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Rossi10:11
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Hartman – Gaudreau – Duhaime4:46
xG 0.15–0.38 (29%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber11:07
xG 0.81–0.53 (60%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Brodin – Faber4:17
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Middleton4:03
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton6:17
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli7:40
xG 0.22–0.01 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- McBain – Guenther – Cooley2:31
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Hayton – Guenther – Cooley4:28
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Moser12:33
xG 0.56–0.43 (57%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Välimäki – Kesselring10:30
xG 0.59–0.46 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Kesselring – Moser2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).