Thu, Feb 15, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 4, Buffalo Sabres 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 16 | 212 | 430 |
| BUF | 010 | 017 | 018 | 045 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:26FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.36 xG1–0
- P2 17:16FLAAnton LundellAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Gustav Forsling · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 18:27FLACarter VerhaegheENAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.71 xG3–0
- P3 19:48FLARyan LombergPPAssists: Gustav Forsling, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
- P2 11:02FLASam Bennett: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:58BUFConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
- P3 4:56FLANiko Mikkola: Holding2 min
- P3 12:59BUFKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:43BUFZach Benson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:48FLARyan Lomberg: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestRodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell9:20
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart12:18
xG 0.59–0.45 (57%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Cousins – Bennett – Tkachuk11:09
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Gadjovich8:25
xG 0.38–0.28 (57%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Kulikov12:59
xG 0.76–0.18 (81%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Montour – Mikkola14:47
xG 0.98–0.70 (59%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Montour2:16
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson3:37
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Tuch – Greenway – Mittelstadt6:56
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson12:23
xG 0.31–0.28 (53%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Okposo – Greenway – Mittelstadt2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Bryson12:54
xG 0.78–0.31 (72%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Clifton – Johnson3:01
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Clifton – Dahlin3:04
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).