Thu, Feb 15, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 011 | 211 | 00 | 332 |
| TOR | 08 | 311 | 08 | 11 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:42PHITravis SanheimSHAssists: Scott Laughton, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P2 11:06TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 14:20TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 18:55TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 14:14PHIGarnet HathawayAssists: Noah Cates, Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 15:15PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Owen Tippett, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 0:54TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:59PHISean Walker: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 0:00PHINick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00TORBobby McMann: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:21TORJake McCabe: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:52PHIOwen Tippett: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:24PHINicolas Deslauriers: Instigator2 min
- P3 4:24TORSimon Benoit: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:24PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:24PHINicolas Deslauriers: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 6:17PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:17TORMark Giordano: Embellishment2 min
- P3 11:15TORNoah Gregor: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:39TORTyler Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Poehling – Cates8:54
xG 0.76–0.12 (87%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Tippett4:32
xG 0.51–0.42 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Konecny – Tippett – Frost2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Frost – Farabee9:16
xG 0.01–0.35 (4%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Walker10:13
xG 0.49–0.15 (76%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Walker – York3:21
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Zamula5:02
xG 0.09–0.01 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander4:52
xG 0.29–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies10:33
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Holmberg5:20
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Domi – Holmberg – Robertson2:55
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Lagesson7:01
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- McCabe – Lagesson2:14
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit13:27
xG 0.75–0.68 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).