Sat, Feb 17, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Nashville Predators 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 112 | 313 | 533 |
| STL | 112 | 016 | 19 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:11NSHColton SissonsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 19:05STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 13:09NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Jeremy Lauzon · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 6:48NSHFilip ForsbergPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 7:51NSHLuke SchennAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Kiefer Sherwood · Slap, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 12:52STLNathan WalkerAssists: Kevin Hayes, Nick Leddy · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 18:28NSHRyan O'ReillyENAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:33STLAlexey Toropchenko: Interference2 min
- P1 17:07NSHYakov Trenin: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:46NSHJeremy Lauzon: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:46NSHCody Glass: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:00NSHLuke Schenn: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P3 6:18STLSammy Blais: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:19NSHJeremy Lauzon: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:17STLOskar Sundqvist: Interference2 min
- P3 19:16STLJordan Binnington: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Sherwood – Smith7:45
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista6:48
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg8:42
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Glass7:59
xG 0.33–0.56 (37%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Schenn13:12
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Josi – Fabbro14:20
xG 0.81–0.49 (63%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier12:35
xG 0.59–0.68 (46%)attempts 15–22goals 2–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas7:52
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Schenn – Kapanen – Neighbours5:27
xG 0.27–0.24 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Neighbours2:25
xG 0.11–0.09 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hayes – Saad – Toropchenko8:03
xG 0.12–0.37 (24%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Kessel12:36
xG 0.78–0.67 (54%)attempts 22–14goals 0–1
- Leddy – Krug2:09
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko14:44
xG 0.45–0.65 (41%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).