Sat, Feb 17, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Anaheim Ducks 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 13 | 010 | 18 | 221 |
| TOR | 418 | 49 | 15 | 932 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Matthew Knies, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 6:06TORBobby McMannPPAssists: Nick Robertson, Maxime Lajoie · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 10:33TORJake McCabeGWGAssists: William Nylander, Max Domi · Snap, 0.04 xG0–3
- P1 11:32ANAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Jakob Silfverberg · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P1 17:37TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.18 xG1–4
- P2 0:50TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Slap, 0.05 xG1–5
- P2 2:51TORTyler BertuzziPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Timothy Liljegren · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–6
- P2 5:39TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Matthew Knies, Jake McCabe · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–7
- P2 17:58TORBobby McMannAssists: Max Domi, Timothy Liljegren · Snap, 0.19 xG1–8
- P3 15:36ANARyan StromeAssists: Gustav Lindstrom, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–8
- P3 17:54TORNick RobertsonAssists: Bobby McMann · Snap, 0.16 xG2–9
Penalties (15)
- P1 4:17ANAFrank Vatrano: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:52TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:52ANARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:52TORMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:25ANAGustav Lindstrom: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:49ANARyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:25ANAMax Jones: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:07TORMax Domi: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:39ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:39TORRyan Reaves: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:58TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:58TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:58ANARadko Gudas: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:13ANAMason McTavish: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:34ANASam Carrick: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Strome – Carlsson8:47
xG 0.60–0.32 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Carrick – Johnston – Jones6:27
xG 0.15–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Silfverberg – Lundeström2:50
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Terry – McTavish8:44
xG 0.20–0.48 (30%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Lindstrom13:55
xG 0.70–0.51 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov12:27
xG 0.44–0.51 (46%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Gudas – Vaakanainen14:17
xG 0.26–1.07 (20%)attempts 9–17goals 0–4
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Gregor – Kampf10:14
xG 0.55–0.07 (88%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies5:39
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Holmberg – Robertson – McMann10:17
xG 0.32–0.15 (67%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Domi – Nylander6:27
xG 0.38–0.42 (47%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Benoit12:26
xG 0.77–0.19 (80%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Brodie – Liljegren8:16
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Lajoie – Liljegren3:23
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).