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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 17, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Anaheim Ducks 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 9

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.

TOR winsANA wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:42Shot by Lundeström, saved by Jones
  3. P1 3:41Goal by Matthews (Knies, Marner)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren, Knies · ANA Gudas, Strome, Vatrano, Vaakanainen, Carlsson

  4. P1 4:13Shot by McTavish, saved by Jones
  5. P1 4:17Vatrano: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Bertuzzi, Domi, Nylander, Liljegren · ANA Fowler, Vatrano, Terry, Lindstrom, McTavish

  6. P1 4:29Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Dostal5v4
  7. P1 4:42Shot by Matthews, saved by Dostal5v4
  8. P1 5:05Shot by Nylander, saved by Dostal5v4
  9. P1 6:06Goal by McMann (Robertson, Lajoie)5v4+13 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Domi, Lajoie, Robertson, McMann, Knies · ANA Silfverberg, Fowler, Lundeström, Lyubushkin

  10. P1 6:20Shot by Gregor, saved by Dostal
  11. P1 10:01Shot by Gregor, saved by Dostal
  12. P1 10:21Shot by Reaves, saved by Dostal
  13. P1 10:27Shot by Brodie, saved by Dostal
  14. P1 10:33Goal by McCabe (Nylander, Domi)+8 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Bertuzzi, Domi, Nylander, Lajoie · ANA Gudas, Vatrano, Terry, Vaakanainen, McTavish

  15. P1 10:52Nylander: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Bertuzzi, Domi, Nylander, Benoit · ANA Gudas, Vatrano, Terry, Vaakanainen, McTavish

  16. P1 10:52Gudas: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Bertuzzi, Domi, Nylander, Benoit · ANA Gudas, Vatrano, Terry, Vaakanainen, McTavish

  17. P1 10:52Domi: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Bertuzzi, Domi, Nylander, Benoit · ANA Gudas, Vatrano, Terry, Vaakanainen, McTavish

  18. P1 11:32Goal by Vatrano (Strome, Silfverberg)4v5+7 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, McCabe, Marner, Kampf · ANA Henrique, Silfverberg, Fowler, Strome, Vatrano

  19. P1 11:41Shot by McMann, saved by Dostal
  20. P1 12:32Shot by Knies, saved by Dostal
  21. P1 16:20Shot by Lajoie, saved by Dostal
  22. P1 16:25Lindstrom: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren, Knies · ANA Fowler, Vatrano, Terry, Lindstrom, McTavish

  23. P1 17:06Shot by Nylander, saved by Dostal5v4
  24. P1 17:14Shot by Nylander, saved by Dostal5v4
  25. P1 17:37Goal by Nylander (Liljegren, Matthews)5v4+8 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Bertuzzi, Nylander, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren · ANA Fowler, Carrick, Lundeström, Lyubushkin

  26. P1 18:26Shot by Benoit, saved by Dostal
  27. P1 18:44Shot by Domi, saved by Dostal
  28. P1 19:49Strome: Hooking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Matthews, Holmberg, Benoit, Robertson, McMann · ANA Henrique, Fowler, Strome, Lindstrom, Carlsson

  29. P1 0:00Period end5v4
  30. P2 0:00Period start
  31. P2 0:08Shot by Henrique, saved by Jones5v4
  32. P2 0:50Goal by Matthews (Marner, Nylander)5v4+4 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Bertuzzi, Nylander, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren · ANA Henrique, Gudas, Vatrano, Vaakanainen

  33. P2 2:25Jones: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Domi, Holmberg, Benoit, Robertson · ANA Fowler, Carrick, Johnston, Jones, Vaakanainen

  34. P2 2:51Goal by Bertuzzi (Matthews, Liljegren)5v4+2 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Bertuzzi, Nylander, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren · ANA Henrique, Fowler, Vatrano, Lyubushkin

  35. P2 4:23Shot by Vaakanainen, saved by Jones
  36. P2 4:58Shot by Gudas, saved by Jones
  37. P2 5:39Goal by Matthews (Knies, McCabe)+1 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Marner, Matthews, Benoit, Knies · ANA Henrique, Silfverberg, Gudas, Vaakanainen, Lundeström

  38. P2 5:59Shot by Lindstrom, saved by Jones
  39. P2 7:05Shot by Strome, saved by Jones
  40. P2 7:26Shot by Carlsson, saved by Jones
  41. P2 7:48Shot by Carlsson, saved by Jones
  42. P2 9:07Domi: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Bertuzzi, Domi, Nylander, Liljegren · ANA Vatrano, Terry, Lyubushkin, McTavish, Mintyukov

  43. P2 10:18Shot by Strome, saved by Jones4v5
  44. P2 10:57Shot by McMann, saved by Gibson4v5
  45. P2 12:08Shot by Vaakanainen, saved by Jones
  46. P2 13:45Shot by Knies, saved by Gibson
  47. P2 14:39Gudas: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Reaves, Lajoie, Gregor, Liljegren, Holmberg · ANA Gudas, Fowler, Carrick, Jones, Lindstrom

  48. P2 14:39Reaves: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Reaves, Lajoie, Gregor, Liljegren, Holmberg · ANA Gudas, Fowler, Carrick, Jones, Lindstrom

  49. P2 16:29Shot by Lyubushkin, saved by Jones4v4
  50. P2 17:58Goal by McMann (Domi, Liljegren)0 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Domi, Liljegren, Holmberg, McMann · ANA Henrique, Gudas, Johnston, Jones, Vaakanainen

  51. P2 17:58Domi: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Domi, Liljegren, Holmberg, McMann · ANA Henrique, Gudas, Johnston, Jones, Vaakanainen

  52. P2 17:58Domi: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Domi, Liljegren, Holmberg, McMann · ANA Henrique, Gudas, Johnston, Jones, Vaakanainen

  53. P2 17:58Gudas: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Domi, Liljegren, Holmberg, McMann · ANA Henrique, Gudas, Johnston, Jones, Vaakanainen

  54. P2 18:13McTavish: High sticking (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Brodie, McCabe, Gregor, Kampf · ANA Killorn, Terry, McTavish, Mintyukov, Carlsson

  55. P2 18:41Shot by Marner, saved by Gibson4v4
  56. P2 18:55Shot by Marner, saved by Gibson4v4
  57. P2 19:01Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Gibson4v4
  58. P2 0:00Period end5v4
  59. P3 0:00Period start
  60. P3 1:19Shot by Brodie, saved by Gibson
  61. P3 4:11Shot by Mintyukov, saved by Jones
  62. P3 4:29Shot by Killorn, saved by Jones
  63. P3 6:30Shot by Gregor, saved by Gibson
  64. P3 10:07Shot by Terry, saved by Jones
  65. P3 11:06Shot by Strome, saved by Jones
  66. P3 11:43Shot by Strome, saved by Jones
  67. P3 13:34Carrick: Misconduct (10 min)

    On ice: TOR Reaves, Brodie, Marner, Robertson, Knies · ANA Gudas, Carrick, Johnston, Terry, Vaakanainen

  68. P3 13:54Shot by Robertson, saved by Gibson
  69. P3 15:30Shot by Henrique, saved by Jones
  70. P3 15:31Shot by Killorn, saved by Jones
  71. P3 15:36Goal by Strome (Lindstrom, Killorn)0 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Bertuzzi, Liljegren, Holmberg, Benoit, Knies · ANA Killorn, Henrique, Fowler, Strome, Lindstrom

  72. P3 16:32Shot by Gregor, saved by Gibson
  73. P3 17:54Goal by Robertson (McMann)0 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Holmberg, Benoit, Robertson, McMann · ANA Killorn, Strome, Lyubushkin, Mintyukov, Carlsson

  74. P3 0:00Period end
  75. P3 0:00Final