Sat, Feb 17, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 112 | 28 | 328 |
| VGK | 113 | 07 | 010 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:15VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Nicolas Roy, Ivan Barbashev · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 1:21CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Seth Jarvis, Brett Pesce · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 0:19CARSeth JarvisSHGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 6:19CARStefan NoesenAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Martin Necas · Backhand, 0.30 xG3–1
Penalties (2)
- P1 15:17CARMartin Necas: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:49CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Froese won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Fast – Aho – Svechnikov12:36
xG 0.49–0.65 (43%)attempts 22–9goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis12:12
xG 0.31–0.50 (39%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Bunting – Necas – Drury12:12
xG 0.54–0.84 (39%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Noesen – Teravainen – Kotkaniemi7:08
xG 0.31–0.62 (33%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Burns – Slavin18:35
xG 1.27–1.35 (49%)attempts 23–26goals 1–1
- Orlov – Chatfield14:06
xG 0.24–0.48 (34%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:57
xG 0.37–0.75 (33%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Amadio – Cotter10:57
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Roy12:25
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Froese – Kolesar – Rondbjerg7:04
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Howden12:13
xG 0.67–0.88 (43%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Miromanov16:02
xG 1.51–0.68 (69%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Hague – Whitecloud16:54
xG 0.35–0.46 (44%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo15:35
xG 0.80–1.03 (44%)attempts 16–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).