Sun, Feb 18, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 3, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 215 | 15 | 010 | 330 |
| COL | 17 | 221 | 19 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10COLRoss ColtonAssists: Miles Wood, Bowen Byram · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 7:48ARIMathew DumbaAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Jack McBain · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 12:20ARILawson CrousePPAssists: Matias Maccelli, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 5:20COLJack JohnsonAssists: Ryan Johansen, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 9:52ARILogan CooleyAssists: Matias Maccelli, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 10:13COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Bowen Byram, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 13:25COLDevon ToewsGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:58COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:58COLMiles Wood: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:25COLMikko Rantanen: Interference2 min
- P2 1:35ARIAdam Ruzicka: Interference2 min
- P2 7:47COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:13ARIAdam Ruzicka: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 12:35ARIAdam Ruzicka: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 5:03COLMiles Wood: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:04ARILawson Crouse: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:04COLRoss Colton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:39COLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli8:24
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
- McBain – Guenther – Cooley6:29
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Keller – Hayton5:23
xG 0.03–0.18 (15%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Zucker – Schmaltz – Ruzicka4:20
xG 0.00–0.72 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Kesselring10:14
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Kesselring2:22
xG 0.01–0.04 (30%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Dumba – Moser12:11
xG 0.25–0.43 (36%)attempts 5–16goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen12:03
xG 1.02–0.32 (76%)attempts 18–7goals 2–1
- Parise – Johansen – Kiviranta4:46
xG 0.08–0.03 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Wagner – Olofsson4:20
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Wood – Lehkonen – Colton6:17
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Byram7:04
xG 0.70–0.04 (94%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Manson – Girard7:32
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Manson2:29
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).