Mon, Feb 19, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Anaheim Ducks 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 14 | 38 | 02 | 414 |
| BUF | 115 | 212 | 010 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:07BUFJordan GreenwayAssists: Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 10:10ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Max Jones, Ross Johnston · Snap, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 8:10BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 11:59ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Mason McTavish, Troy Terry · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 14:34ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Mason McTavish, Troy Terry · Snap, 0.43 xG3–2
- P2 15:20BUFZach BensonAssists: Henri Jokiharju, JJ Peterka · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 18:56ANATroy TerryGWGAssists: Mason McTavish · Snap, 0.40 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:11BUFJJ Peterka: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:11ANAFrank Vatrano: Holding2 min
- P2 7:05ANASam Carrick: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:24ANAMason McTavish: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:42BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVatrano – Terry – McTavish14:02
xG 1.48–0.85 (63%)attempts 13–15goals 3–1
- Killorn – Henrique – Carlsson2:53
xG 0.05–0.04 (51%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Strome – Lundeström2:22
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Lundeström7:25
xG 0.06–0.37 (15%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudas – LaCombe16:16
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov14:08
xG 0.43–0.98 (31%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
- Fowler – Lindstrom16:40
xG 0.85–1.46 (37%)attempts 9–27goals 2–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKrebs – Peterka – Benson13:24
xG 0.90–0.16 (85%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Greenway – Mittelstadt – Cozens11:02
xG 0.56–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson10:40
xG 0.63–0.31 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Robinson7:24
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin18:34
xG 1.35–0.11 (92%)attempts 20–7goals 2–0
- Johnson – Bryson2:25
xG 0.37–0.08 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Clifton – Bryson9:38
xG 0.21–0.17 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).