Mon, Feb 19, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Detroit Red Wings 4, Seattle Kraken 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 215 | 010 | 11 | 432 |
| SEA | 115 | 113 | 112 | 01 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:30DETMoritz SeiderAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 18:32SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Andre Burakovsky · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 7:18DETLucas RaymondAssists: J.T. Compher, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 10:51SEAJared McCannAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Will Borgen · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 15:58DETDaniel SprongAssists: Christian Fischer · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 7:25SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Yanni Gourde, Will Borgen · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 1:07DETBen ChiarotGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:14SEAKailer Yamamoto: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:37DETBen Chiarot: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:16DETOlli Maatta: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Copp – Veleno11:21
xG 0.61–0.49 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Fischer – Sprong8:48
xG 0.35–0.45 (43%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Compher – DeBrincat – Raymond10:55
xG 0.45–0.86 (34%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Kane – Larkin – Rasmussen12:27
xG 0.18–0.77 (19%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Gostisbehere14:20
xG 0.49–0.68 (42%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Petry – Chiarot16:22
xG 0.60–0.91 (40%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
- Walman – Seider15:14
xG 0.43–1.53 (22%)attempts 12–27goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg12:12
xG 1.33–0.53 (72%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Tatar – Tanev – Yamamoto6:49
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers12:00
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen11:45
xG 0.40–0.62 (40%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen13:18
xG 1.41–0.54 (72%)attempts 22–22goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn17:41
xG 0.86–0.59 (60%)attempts 21–11goals 0–1
- Schultz – Dumoulin13:45
xG 0.61–0.49 (55%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).