Tue, Feb 20, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
New Jersey Devils 2, Washington Capitals 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 017 | 112 | 239 |
| WSH | 18 | 17 | 411 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:39WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 15:06NJDAlexander HoltzAssists: Simon Nemec · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 4:17WSHConnor McMichaelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 4:10WSHDylan StromeGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Sonny Milano · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–3
- P3 8:44WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 12:27WSHMichael SgarbossaAssists: John Carlson, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–5
- P3 15:34NJDErik HaulaAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Brendan Smith · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 19:27WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Dylan Strome, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–6
Penalties (3)
- P2 1:43WSHT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:38WSHAlex Ovechkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:39NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McMichael won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestLazar – Meier – Mercer4:29
xG 0.70–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Haula – Toffoli – Hughes15:11
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Palat – Bratt – Hischier11:35
xG 0.78–0.74 (51%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Nosek – Bastian – Holtz2:39
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Bahl14:48
xG 0.88–0.26 (77%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- Hughes – Nemec2:24
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Bahl – Nemec2:45
xG 0.11–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Sgarbossa – Milano10:30
xG 0.91–0.48 (65%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Wilson – Malenstyn – McMichael4:11
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas8:42
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Dowd – Wilson – Malenstyn6:02
xG 0.02–0.36 (5%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Sandin15:55
xG 1.07–0.61 (64%)attempts 16–18goals 2–0
- Carlson – van Riemsdyk16:26
xG 0.91–0.70 (57%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
- Edmundson – van Riemsdyk4:08
xG 0.10–0.01 (88%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).