Wed, Feb 21, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Boston Bruins 6, Edmonton Oilers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 114 | 39 | 110 | 13 | 636 |
| EDM | 112 | 110 | 318 | 02 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:34BOSMorgan GeekiePPAssists: Mason Lohrei, Charlie Coyle · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 11:40EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 0:25BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Danton Heinen, Mason Lohrei · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 4:40BOSTrent FredericAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Charlie McAvoy · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 13:57BOSJake DeBruskAssists: David Pastrnak, Parker Wotherspoon · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–1
- P2 15:27EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Zach Hyman, Brett Kulak · Backhand, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 6:14EDMMattias JanmarkAssists: Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 7:24EDMCorey PerryAssists: Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
- P3 12:41BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Mason Lohrei · Snap, 0.16 xG5–4
- P3 13:23EDMZach HymanAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–5
- OT 3:10BOSCharlie McAvoyGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Pavel Zacha · Backhand, 0.14 xG6–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:05EDMRyan McLeod: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:27BOSAnthony Richard: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:20EDMCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:20BOSParker Wotherspoon: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:20EDMCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:09BOSMorgan Geekie: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:39BOSJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFrederic – Brazeau – Boqvist6:13
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Pastrnak – Zacha – DeBrusk15:07
xG 1.30–1.28 (50%)attempts 17–30goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Richard – Geekie8:17
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Heinen10:05
xG 0.77–0.99 (44%)attempts 9–18goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Lohrei2:58
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Forbort – Wotherspoon2:58
xG 0.43–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Carlo – Wotherspoon6:06
xG 0.24–0.12 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Foegele – McDavid13:39
xG 1.96–0.45 (81%)attempts 37–8goals 3–0
- Gagner – Brown – Ryan2:18
xG 0.14–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Kane – Draisaitl5:29
xG 0.21–0.25 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Perry – Janmark – Holloway3:59
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard19:22
xG 2.22–0.49 (82%)attempts 45–10goals 2–0
- Kulak – Desharnais11:12
xG 0.32–0.68 (32%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Ceci – Nurse17:43
xG 0.92–2.05 (31%)attempts 15–26goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).