Thu, Feb 22, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 423 | 210 | 19 | 742 |
| VGK | 014 | 15 | 27 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:00TORJake McCabeUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 11:10TORDavid KampfAssists: Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–0
- P1 14:20TORJohn TavaresAssists: Nick Robertson, Bobby McMann · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P1 16:11TORMax DomiGWGAssists: William Nylander, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–0
- P2 0:51VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P2 11:44TORMax DomiAssists: Simon Benoit, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–1
- P2 15:36TORPontus HolmbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–1
- P3 0:59VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Shea Theodore, Brendan Brisson · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–2
- P3 1:25VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–3
- P3 10:35TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.09 xG7–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 7:35VGKZach Whitecloud: Holding2 min
- P2 17:24VGKPaul Cotter: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:17TORPontus Holmberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Kampf – Holmberg10:35
xG 1.38–0.11 (93%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies12:23
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Domi – Nylander9:48
xG 0.84–0.62 (57%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Tavares – Robertson – McMann8:36
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Lagesson12:01
xG 1.47–0.77 (66%)attempts 18–16goals 3–1
- Brodie – Liljegren15:57
xG 0.97–0.36 (73%)attempts 21–17goals 0–1
- Brodie – Rielly2:39
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Stephenson – Barbashev – Amadio9:31
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Roy3:58
xG 0.32–0.47 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Brisson6:33
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
- Froese – Rempal – Morelli8:28
xG 0.04–0.23 (16%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Theodore16:39
xG 1.05–1.31 (44%)attempts 22–27goals 3–3
- Martinez – Pietrangelo15:42
xG 0.25–0.83 (23%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
- Hague – Whitecloud15:56
xG 0.39–1.15 (25%)attempts 12–23goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).