Fri, Feb 23, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Winnipeg Jets 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 115 | 07 | 11 | 331 |
| CHI | 011 | 110 | 114 | 00 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:47WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 1:49WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 15:58CHIColin BlackwellAssists: Seth Jones · Snap, 0.32 xG2–1
- P3 19:17CHITyler JohnsonAssists: Nick Foligno, Jason Dickinson · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 0:25WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:49CHIConnor Bedard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:45CHITaylor Raddysh: Illegal check to head2 min
- P2 11:34WPGNeal Pionk: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:22WPGBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:22CHIConnor Bedard: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:03WPGLogan Stanley: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Ehlers – Iafallo9:12
xG 0.65–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Barron – Perfetti6:22
xG 0.72–0.17 (81%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:56
xG 0.28–0.77 (26%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:35
xG 0.18–0.81 (18%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey17:36
xG 1.21–0.60 (67%)attempts 18–18goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk14:20
xG 0.19–0.38 (34%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Stanley – Samberg9:47
xG 0.39–0.90 (30%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Dickinson – Anderson10:40
xG 0.80–0.07 (92%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Foligno – Johnson – Raddysh3:46
xG 0.51–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Beauvillier – Raddysh5:02
xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Donato – Entwistle – Johnson7:26
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Vlasic18:45
xG 0.85–0.28 (75%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Tinordi – Phillips11:00
xG 0.71–0.93 (43%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Megna – Korchinski10:22
xG 0.26–0.56 (32%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).