Sat, Feb 24, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 2, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 09 | 110 | 15 | 224 |
| PHI | 018 | 05 | 117 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:56NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Vincent Trocheck, K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 2:36PHITyson FoersterAssists: Scott Laughton, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P3 6:31NYRMatt RempeGWGAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Braden Schneider · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:00NYRMatt Rempe: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:00PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:42NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:03PHIJoel Farabee: Interference2 min
- P1 10:48NYRErik Gustafsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:51PHIJoel Farabee: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:47PHIGarnet Hathaway: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 11:37NYRArtemi Panarin: Holding2 min
- P3 8:58PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:57NYRK'Andre Miller: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Edstrom – Rempe3:40
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière12:02
xG 0.27–0.18 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Brodzinski – Kakko – Cuylle6:17
xG 0.06–0.09 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vesey6:52
xG 0.02–0.30 (8%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fox – Lindgren13:46
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Schneider9:19
xG 0.21–0.51 (29%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Trouba – Miller14:17
xG 0.41–1.22 (25%)attempts 11–26goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Farabee – Foerster2:09
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Foerster2:43
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Tippett – Frost6:01
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Cates6:50
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Zamula6:57
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Staal – Drysdale3:58
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Seeler – Walker8:18
xG 0.76–0.64 (54%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).