Sat, Feb 24, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Dallas Stars 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 16 | 17 | 03 | 216 |
| CAR | 07 | 110 | 04 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:38DALJason RobertsonAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 2:16CARSebastian AhoAssists: Jesper Fast, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 8:15DALWyatt JohnstonGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:36CARBrady Skjei: Holding2 min
- P2 4:22DALJason Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:24CARJack Drury: Holding2 min
- P2 19:59CARDmitry Orlov: Interference2 min
- P3 4:45CARDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:00DALJoe Pavelski: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Stankoven – Johnston8:39
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel8:28
xG 0.03–0.10 (25%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Duchene – Marchment – Dellandrea7:25
xG 0.08–0.24 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:29
xG 0.15–0.55 (22%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Heiskanen2:38
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Hanley8:46
xG 0.05–0.25 (16%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley12:43
xG 0.44–0.75 (37%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFast – Aho – Svechnikov8:46
xG 0.45–0.06 (89%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Noesen – Teravainen – Kotkaniemi6:49
xG 0.05–0.03 (60%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bunting – Necas – Drury11:12
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis6:21
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Pesce14:17
xG 1.01–0.12 (90%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Burns – Slavin10:45
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
- Skjei – DeAngelo13:52
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).