Sun, Feb 25, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 06 | 111 | 12 | 331 |
| CHI | 014 | 211 | 08 | 03 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:19DETDaniel SprongAssists: Christian Fischer, Robby Fabbri · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 3:29CHIMacKenzie EntwistleAssists: Ryan Donato, Reese Johnson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 17:52CHINick FolignoPPAssists: Connor Bedard, Seth Jones · Deflected, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 15:44DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 1:43DETPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
Penalties (1)
- P2 17:00DETLucas Raymond: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Copp – Veleno12:30
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Compher – Rasmussen – Raymond15:12
xG 0.55–0.68 (45%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Fischer – Sprong7:14
xG 0.11–0.36 (24%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Kane – Larkin – DeBrincat15:28
xG 0.30–0.93 (24%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Chiarot18:32
xG 0.53–0.83 (39%)attempts 23–18goals 0–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere16:26
xG 0.28–0.65 (30%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Walman – Seider17:36
xG 0.47–1.05 (31%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBlackwell – Dickinson – Anderson12:40
xG 0.89–0.10 (90%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Donato – Entwistle – Johnson6:40
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Beauvillier – Kurashev – Bedard13:15
xG 0.52–0.53 (49%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
- Foligno – Johnson – Raddysh14:12
xG 0.33–0.57 (37%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Vlasic22:23
xG 1.14–0.27 (81%)attempts 25–18goals 1–2
- Tinordi – Crevier14:07
xG 0.91–0.71 (56%)attempts 11–27goals 0–0
- Megna – Korchinski17:59
xG 0.53–0.71 (43%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).