Tue, Feb 27, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 2, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 08 | 113 | 230 |
| FLA | 211 | 018 | 18 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:25BUFDylan CozensPPAssists: Jordan Greenway, Owen Power · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 12:54FLASam BennettAssists: Nick Cousins, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 15:36FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 9:41FLABrandon MontourPPGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 12:44BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch · Deflected, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:44BUFZach Benson: Holding2 min
- P1 6:44FLADmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
- P1 7:40FLABrandon Montour: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:22BUFJacob Bryson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:35FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:44BUFConnor Clifton: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:23BUFJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:23FLANick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:23BUFJordan Greenway: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:09FLADmitry Kulikov: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:31FLANiko Mikkola: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:01BUFZach Benson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:01BUFJJ Peterka: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson10:14
xG 0.44–0.12 (78%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Robinson6:18
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Greenway – Mittelstadt – Cozens7:45
xG 0.19–0.27 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Krebs – Peterka – Benson7:59
xG 0.17–0.58 (23%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power4:33
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin12:22
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Bryson – Power2:42
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Bennett – Tkachuk12:34
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Gadjovich7:29
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart8:24
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell5:39
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mikkola12:52
xG 0.88–0.41 (68%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Kulikov11:38
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling13:48
xG 0.13–0.39 (24%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).