Tue, Feb 27, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Arizona Coyotes 2, Montréal Canadiens 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 011 | 116 | 111 | 238 |
| MTL | 15 | 19 | 27 | 421 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:52MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Alex Newhook, Joshua Roy · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 4:52MTLJordan HarrisUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 7:42ARIAlexander KerfootAssists: J.J. Moser, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 5:14MTLTanner PearsonGWGAssists: Jordan Harris, Jake Evans · Snap, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 14:23ARINick BjugstadAssists: Matias Maccelli, Michael Kesselring · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:57MTLNick SuzukiENAssists: Joel Armia, Jake Evans · Backhand, 0.63 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:56MTLJuraj Slafkovský: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:36MTLJuraj Slafkovský: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:49MTLJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli13:23
xG 1.08–0.44 (71%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Zucker – Guenther – Cooley9:38
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- O'Brien – Carcone – McBain6:40
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Hayton14:01
xG 0.72–1.05 (41%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Kesselring15:17
xG 1.23–0.91 (57%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Stecher – Välimäki11:41
xG 0.59–0.56 (51%)attempts 15–6goals 0–2
- Dumba – Moser17:24
xG 0.43–0.88 (33%)attempts 11–20goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Newhook – Roy8:10
xG 0.81–0.45 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans10:24
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský13:17
xG 0.46–0.45 (50%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Pearson – White – Ylonen7:29
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 2–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Kovacevic – Harris13:22
xG 0.51–0.56 (48%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Matheson – Guhle15:50
xG 0.87–0.95 (48%)attempts 10–19goals 0–2
- Savard – Xhekaj14:29
xG 0.98–1.07 (48%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).