Tue, Feb 27, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 112 | 115 | 011 | 238 |
| WPG | 313 | 012 | 17 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:53WPGSean MonahanAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 10:20WPGBrenden DillonAssists: Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 10:50STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Marco Scandella, Robert Thomas · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 15:33WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 9:03STLBrandon SaadUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–3
- P3 10:13WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Sean Monahan · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:53WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:53STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:10STLTorey Krug: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:48WPGNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:02STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:46WPGMason Appleton: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:04STLOskar Sundqvist: Interference2 min
- P3 6:04WPGMark Scheifele: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:19WPGNeal Pionk: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Saad – Neighbours7:17
xG 0.85–0.15 (85%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko8:50
xG 0.56–0.18 (75%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Schenn – Neighbours – Bolduc2:31
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hayes – Kapanen – Bolduc2:23
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Perunovich2:33
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko10:36
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Krug – Parayko4:05
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Ehlers – Iafallo9:28
xG 0.79–0.20 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton8:47
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Barron – Perfetti7:10
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:03
xG 0.33–1.48 (18%)attempts 11–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk14:10
xG 0.81–0.19 (81%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:05
xG 1.11–1.09 (51%)attempts 19–23goals 3–1
- Schmidt – Samberg11:08
xG 0.47–1.19 (28%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).