Thu, Feb 29, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 313 | 113 | 433 |
| CBJ | 04 | 110 | 18 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:53CARTeuvo TeravainenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 8:19CARSebastian AhoAssists: Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 9:56CBJCole SillingerAssists: Zach Werenski, Alex Nylander · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 16:30CARBrady SkjeiGWGAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Brent Burns · Poke, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 8:41CBJAlex NylanderPPAssists: Jack Roslovic, Boone Jenner · Snap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 19:45CARSeth JarvisENAssists: Jordan Martinook, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:01CBJDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:22CARBrady Skjei: Holding2 min
- P3 7:50CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:12CARMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:12CBJDamon Severson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Voronkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov11:28
xG 1.41–0.25 (85%)attempts 20–5goals 2–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis9:45
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Fast – Noesen – Kotkaniemi9:14
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bunting – Necas – Drury12:35
xG 0.32–0.72 (31%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce15:10
xG 1.35–0.40 (77%)attempts 26–7goals 2–0
- Burns – Slavin13:25
xG 0.39–0.41 (49%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Orlov – Chatfield15:08
xG 0.35–0.57 (38%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Olivier – Danforth8:20
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Nylander – Texier – Sillinger12:25
xG 0.70–0.65 (52%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Chinakhov7:24
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 2–11goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Roslovic12:16
xG 0.42–1.24 (25%)attempts 7–23goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov14:14
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Severson – Werenski2:35
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Peeke – Bean11:48
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).