Fri, Mar 1, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Arizona Coyotes 5, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 318 | 04 | 28 | 530 |
| OTT | 111 | 219 | 07 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:31ARIMichael CarconeUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 12:39ARIJ.J. MoserAssists: Dylan Guenther, Michael Carcone · Snap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 15:37ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Sean Durzi · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P1 18:09OTTVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Shane Pinto · Slap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 13:49OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Jacob Bernard-Docker, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 15:52OTTShane PintoPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 4:18ARIDylan GuentherPPGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Matias Maccelli · Snap, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 18:45ARIMatias MaccelliENAssists: Barrett Hayton, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.77 xG5–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:53OTTZack MacEwen: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 15:21OTTRidly Greig: Tripping2 min
- P1 0:00ARIJack McBain: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:54ARISean Durzi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:29OTTParker Kelly: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 1:29ARILogan Cooley: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:52OTTRidly Greig: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:38ARITroy Stecher: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:38ARITroy Stecher: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:38OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Schmaltz – Hayton10:16
xG 0.79–0.14 (85%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Carcone – McBain3:39
xG 0.28–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli11:54
xG 0.18–0.63 (22%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Zucker – Guenther – Cooley7:40
xG 0.15–0.63 (20%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStecher – Välimäki12:04
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Durzi2:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Durzi – Kesselring12:22
xG 0.53–0.56 (48%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Batherson – Stützle14:18
xG 0.85–0.60 (59%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Joseph – Kelly – Greig7:45
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Tkachuk – Pinto12:24
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Joseph – Greig3:10
xG 0.02–0.06 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Chychrun10:51
xG 0.85–0.20 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker7:13
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub14:50
xG 0.72–0.44 (62%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).