Sat, Mar 2, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 4, Detroit Red Wings 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 212 | 216 | 437 |
| DET | 05 | 010 | 06 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:50FLABrandon MontourGWGAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Anton Lundell · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 13:06FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.27 xG2–0
- P3 4:39FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell · Slap, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 13:02FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Brandon Montour · Deflected, 0.17 xG4–0
Penalties (23)
- P1 6:36FLAEetu Luostarinen: Interference2 min
- P1 12:03DETMoritz Seider: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:19FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:19DETDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:54FLASam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P2 5:13FLAKevin Stenlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:07DETJake Walman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:06FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:06DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:50FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:50DETAlex DeBrincat: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:57FLABrandon Montour: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:57FLASam Bennett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:57DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:57DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:57DETDylan Larkin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:45DETJake Walman: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:45DETJake Walman: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:45DETJake Walman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:31FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:31FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:31FLARyan Lomberg: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:31DETRobby Fabbri: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Bennett – Tkachuk8:03
xG 0.65–0.32 (67%)attempts 22–6goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell7:05
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 11–2goals 2–0
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Lockwood6:16
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart5:40
xG 0.04–0.05 (47%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mikkola8:00
xG 0.49–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Kulikov8:13
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Montour2:32
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFabbri – Fischer – Sprong4:18
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Larkin – DeBrincat5:21
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Veleno4:47
xG 0.12–0.13 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Compher – Rasmussen – Raymond2:59
xG 0.00–0.06 (4%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Chiarot11:01
xG 0.62–0.69 (47%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Walman – Seider8:45
xG 0.22–0.34 (39%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere11:14
xG 0.01–0.34 (3%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).