Sat, Mar 2, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New York Rangers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 110 | 16 | 114 | 05 | 1 | 335 |
| TOR | 012 | 210 | 112 | 00 | 2 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:33NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 3:54TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 5:03NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 8:54TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Max Domi, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 7:17TORJohn TavaresAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Morgan Rielly · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 18:53NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 2. NYR Artemi Panarin stopped
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 4. NYR Mika Zibanejad scored
- 5. TOR Mitch Marner scored
- 6. NYR Alexis Lafrenière stopped
- 7. TOR Max Domi scored
- 8. NYR Vincent Trocheck stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:28NYRJacob Trouba: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:05TORTimothy Liljegren: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:19NYRVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min
- P1 17:59TORSimon Benoit: Interference2 min
- P2 14:48NYRRyan Lindgren: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:07TORMatthew Knies: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:01TORRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:01NYRMatt Rempe: Fighting5 min
- OT 4:53NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:27
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Goodrow – Edstrom – Rempe3:12
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brodzinski – Cuylle – Rempe2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Edstrom2:21
xG 0.05–0.11 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Schneider8:34
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Trouba – Miller16:45
xG 0.41–0.83 (33%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren14:38
xG 0.52–1.31 (29%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Jarnkrok – McMann10:58
xG 1.64–0.05 (97%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies10:39
xG 1.11–0.37 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Reaves – Kampf – Holmberg6:45
xG 0.04–0.07 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Domi – Nylander8:26
xG 0.26–0.67 (28%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Benoit12:10
xG 0.92–0.31 (75%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin8:26
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- McCabe – Liljegren3:40
xG 0.60–0.25 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).