Sat, Mar 2, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 2, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 16 | 15 | 09 | 03 | 1 | 223 |
| DAL | 012 | 117 | 17 | 02 | 2 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39SJSWilliam EklundAssists: Luke Kunin, Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 3:08DALRadek FaksaAssists: Sam Steel, Craig Smith · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 17:08SJSFilip ZadinaAssists: Luke Kunin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 4:08DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson stopped
- 2. SJS Fabian Zetterlund stopped
- 3. DAL Matt Duchene scored
- 4. SJS Anthony Duclair scored
- 5. DAL Roope Hintz stopped
- 6. SJS William Eklund stopped
- 7. DAL Wyatt Johnston stopped
- 8. SJS Mikael Granlund stopped
- 9. DAL Logan Stankoven stopped
- 10. SJS Filip Zadina stopped
- 11. DAL Joe Pavelski stopped
- 12. SJS Mike Hoffman stopped
- 13. DAL Jamie Benn scored
- 14. SJS Luke Kunin stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:59SJSMario Ferraro: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:40SJSNikita Okhotiuk: Holding2 min
- P2 12:34DALTy Dellandrea: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:05SJSFilip Zadina: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 4:47SJSKyle Burroughs: Holding2 min
- P3 7:09DALNils Lundkvist: Interference2 min
- P3 7:09SJSWilliam Eklund: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- OT 2:26DALMiro Heiskanen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Hoffman – Bailey – Sturm5:29
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Granlund – Duclair – Zetterlund13:11
xG 0.46–0.64 (42%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Kunin – Zadina – Eklund11:43
xG 0.44–0.89 (33%)attempts 13–18goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestRutta – Thrun9:44
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Burroughs – Okhotiuk8:37
xG 0.62–0.56 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Ferraro – Thrun2:21
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Marchment – Dellandrea8:45
xG 0.96–0.44 (68%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston9:56
xG 0.57–0.34 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Duchene – Smith – Marchment3:33
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel5:34
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell12:37
xG 1.01–0.45 (69%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Heiskanen – Harley17:13
xG 0.55–0.22 (72%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Suter – Lundkvist11:04
xG 0.61–0.36 (62%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).