Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sun, Mar 3, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington

Arizona Coyotes 5, Washington Capitals 2

Away

Arizona Coyotes

5

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 81% of the time.

WSH winsARI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ARI11031315528
WSH0711019226

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:33ARILogan CooleyAssists: Jason Zucker, Dylan Guenther · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
  2. P2 4:06ARIJason ZuckerPPAssists: Dylan Guenther, Nick Schmaltz · Snap, 0.22 xG2–0
  3. P2 6:02WSHSonny MilanoPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Rasmus Sandin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
  4. P2 6:45ARIMichael KesselringGWGAssists: Liam O'Brien, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
  5. P2 18:01ARIDylan GuentherPPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Sean Durzi · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
  6. P3 0:10WSHAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.07 xG4–2
  7. P3 19:39ARINick SchmaltzENAssists: Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.74 xG5–2
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 10:43WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 15:35ARINick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 2:24WSHRasmus Sandin: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 4:32ARIKarel Vejmelka: Tripping2 min · PPG
  5. P2 8:15WSHSonny Milano: Holding the stick2 min
  6. P2 10:16ARIMichael Carcone: Too many men on the ice2 min
  7. P2 14:33WSHJohn Carlson: Abuse of officials2 min
  8. P2 14:58ARIDylan Guenther: Tripping2 min
  9. P2 17:40WSHTom Wilson: Abuse of officials2 min · PPG
  10. P2 17:40WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
  11. P2 19:50ARIMichael Kesselring: Holding2 min · PPG
  12. P3 11:21ARIMichael Kesselring: Holding2 min
  13. P3 11:50WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
  14. P3 16:56ARIBarrett Hayton: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ARI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
46% to win54% to win
← ARI attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against McMichael
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ARIWSH
28Shots on goal26
4.6Expected goals2.6
69Shot attempts55
32Faceoffs won27
6Power plays7
14Penalty minutes22
18Hits23
11Blocked shots24
11Giveaways10
10Takeaways8

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Arizona Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. bestZucker – Guenther – Cooley8:03

    xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0

  2. Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Hayton6:54

    xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0

  3. O'Brien – Carcone – McBain7:06

    xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0

  4. Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli7:50

    xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestDurzi – Kesselring10:22

    xG 0.93–0.17 (84%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0

  2. Välimäki – Kesselring2:48

    xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0

  3. Stecher – Välimäki10:48

    xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0

Washington Capitals

Forward lines

  1. bestPacioretty – Milano – Strome7:57

    xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0

  2. Mantha – McMichael – Protas7:26

    xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1

  3. Ovechkin – Wilson – Lapierre4:23

    xG 0.41–0.49 (46%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0

  4. Sgarbossa – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn5:15

    xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. van Riemsdyk – Sandin2:26

    xG 0.06–0.07 (44%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  2. van Riemsdyk – Alexeyev9:08

    xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1

  3. Carlson – van Riemsdyk2:01

    xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 2.6 xGARI 4.6 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHARI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 54/100 · #669 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.25 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 46% (winner's lowest chance)
ARI 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 81% of the time.

WSH winsARI wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − ARI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).