Tue, Mar 5, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 216 | 113 | 335 |
| PIT | 212 | 16 | 213 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:33PITJesse PuljujarviAssists: Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 18:57PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Reilly Smith, Ryan Graves · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 4:31CBJJohnny GaudreauAssists: Jack Roslovic, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 5:28CBJAndrew PeekeAssists: Jake Bean, Alexandre Texier · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 14:32PITRickard RakellPPUnassisted · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 8:04CBJJack RoslovicSHAssists: Andrew Peeke · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 8:26PITJeff CarterPPGWGAssists: Emil Bemstrom, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 9:53PITReilly SmithAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.31 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 13:50CBJJake Bean: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00CBJSean Kuraly: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:34CBJCole Sillinger: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:35PITRickard Rakell: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Sillinger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Jenner – Roslovic12:55
xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Nylander – Voronkov – Chinakhov2:25
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Nylander – Texier – Sillinger10:47
xG 0.55–0.67 (45%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
- Kuraly – Olivier – Danforth10:27
xG 0.28–0.43 (40%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Peeke2:08
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Werenski – Peeke3:52
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Werenski – Provorov2:57
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Smith – Puustinen11:39
xG 0.95–0.51 (65%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Puljujarvi – Bemstrom – O'Connor5:02
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Carter – Koppanen – Gruden5:25
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Crosby – Eller – Rakell16:06
xG 0.52–0.71 (42%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Graves11:29
xG 0.81–0.41 (67%)attempts 11–19goals 2–1
- Karlsson – Pettersson16:47
xG 0.79–0.66 (54%)attempts 20–20goals 0–1
- Letang – Graves2:14
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).