Thu, Mar 7, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 112 | 010 | 129 |
| BOS | 19 | 312 | 04 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 4:16BOSTrent FredericGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 7:56TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 17:16BOSMorgan GeekiePPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 18:23BOSBrandon CarloAssists: Brad Marchand, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (19)
- P1 3:54TORJake McCabe: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 3:54TORMatthew Knies: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:39TORRyan Reaves: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:00BOSCharlie Coyle: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:00BOSCharlie Coyle: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:27BOSTrent Frederic: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:25TORBobby McMann: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:25BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:25TORTyler Bertuzzi: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:25BOSParker Wotherspoon: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:48BOSMorgan Geekie: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:48TORNoah Gregor: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:26TORJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:18BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
- P3 5:29TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:29TORJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:29BOSTrent Frederic: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:29TORMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:29BOSCharlie McAvoy: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Marner – Matthews5:46
xG 0.52–0.02 (96%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Domi – Nylander3:19
xG 0.02–0.10 (17%)attempts 3–3goals 0–2
- Bertuzzi – Domi – Nylander4:05
xG 0.05–0.20 (18%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – McMann6:26
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Liljegren4:03
xG 0.35–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Rielly – Lyubushkin9:48
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Benoit3:35
xG 0.01–0.07 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBrazeau – Boqvist – Lauko6:20
xG 0.19–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Frederic – Geekie2:36
xG 0.15–0.00 (98%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Heinen – Zacha4:38
xG 0.19–0.22 (47%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Heinen – Brazeau – Boqvist2:08
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Wotherspoon10:36
xG 1.04–0.20 (84%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Carlo – Lohrei8:34
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Carlo – Wotherspoon3:24
xG 0.02–0.04 (35%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).