Thu, Mar 7, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Minnesota Wild 5, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 111 | 410 | 528 |
| ARI | 07 | 011 | 27 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:51MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P3 1:21ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Barrett Hayton, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 1:28ARIMichael CarconeAssists: Liam O'Brien, Jack McBain · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 2:00MINZach BogosianAssists: Ryan Hartman, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 7:16MINJoel Eriksson EkGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:48MINBrock FaberENAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.47 xG4–2
- P3 19:33MINConnor DewarENAssists: Jonas Brodin, Adam Beckman · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P2 1:42ARISean Durzi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:09MINMarco Rossi: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 4:11MINDakota Mermis: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:10MINMarco Rossi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:00ARILiam O'Brien: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 19:51ARIPatrik Koch: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:51ARIJoshua Brown: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:51ARILiam O'Brien: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:51MINVinni Lettieri: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:51MINMason Shaw: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kerfoot won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy12:11
xG 0.61–0.32 (66%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Lettieri – Shaw – Lucchini5:50
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Dewar – Beckman8:22
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Rossi9:39
xG 0.35–0.42 (46%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Chisholm15:51
xG 0.88–0.72 (55%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Brodin – Chisholm2:02
xG 0.09–0.14 (38%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Merrill – Mermis12:35
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:18
xG 0.81–0.35 (70%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Carcone – McBain6:34
xG 0.17–0.09 (65%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Crouse – Maccelli13:07
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Carcone – Guenther – Cooley4:06
xG 0.43–0.44 (49%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – Dermott5:36
xG 0.43–0.11 (81%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Välimäki – Kesselring14:16
xG 0.87–0.72 (55%)attempts 24–12goals 0–0
- Brown – Koch5:40
xG 0.18–0.34 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).