Sat, Mar 9, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Edmonton Oilers 2, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 014 | 07 | 01 | 1 | 232 |
| BUF | 17 | 06 | 110 | 04 | 2 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:29EDMRyan McLeodAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:19EDMWarren FoegeleSHAssists: Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–0
- P1 15:35BUFTage ThompsonPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 11:39BUFJacob BrysonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson scored
- 2. EDM Connor McDavid stopped
- 3. BUF Owen Power stopped
- 4. EDM Leon Draisaitl scored
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch scored
- 6. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:19BUFOwen Power: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:53EDMBrett Kulak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:57BUFTage Thompson: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:22BUFOwen Power: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:37
xG 0.87–0.49 (64%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Perry – Henrique – Kane9:09
xG 0.31–0.45 (41%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Foegele – McLeod11:57
xG 0.47–0.64 (42%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Carrick – Brown – Janmark8:11
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Desharnais15:05
xG 1.14–0.55 (68%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Ceci – Kulak15:40
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard15:42
xG 0.61–0.98 (38%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Jost – Rousek8:53
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Robinson – Cozens – Benson10:59
xG 0.37–0.29 (56%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Krebs2:04
xG 0.04–0.04 (51%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Krebs – Peterka4:19
xG 0.03–0.12 (22%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Bryson8:52
xG 0.27–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin2:17
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power2:24
xG 0.15–0.14 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).