Sat, Mar 9, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
St. Louis Blues 0, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 014 | 06 | 06 | 026 |
| NYR | 211 | 012 | 216 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:51NYRVincent TrocheckPPGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 19:37NYRJimmy VeseyAssists: Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 6:23NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 11:23NYRKaapo KakkoPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:00STLZachary Bolduc: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:36STLKevin Hayes: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:51NYRErik Gustafsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:59STLJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:01STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:53NYRZac Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:49STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:13STLColton Parayko: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas11:26
xG 0.48–0.42 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Hayes – Kapanen – Bolduc9:05
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Blais – Toropchenko6:37
xG 0.27–0.37 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Neighbours10:52
xG 0.44–0.62 (41%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko12:48
xG 0.69–0.57 (55%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Leddy – Krug2:16
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Parayko – Perunovich2:38
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Vesey – Rempe8:29
xG 0.44–0.04 (92%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Wennberg – Kakko – Cuylle8:48
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière9:50
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Roslovic10:34
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren13:47
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 26–5goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Jones12:24
xG 0.28–0.28 (51%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Miller – Schneider14:39
xG 0.24–0.87 (22%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).