Tue, Mar 12, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 013 | 19 | 01 | 135 |
| OTT | 09 | 010 | 114 | 16 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 11:06OTTJake SandersonAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 19:37PITMichael BuntingAssists: Erik Karlsson, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- OT 3:13OTTDrake BathersonGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:17OTTMark Kastelic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 2:17OTTMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:17PITJohn Ludvig: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:55PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:07PITKris Letang: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:20OTTMathieu Joseph: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:20PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Eller – Rakell – Puustinen7:34
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Acciari – Bemstrom6:56
xG 0.34–0.36 (48%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – O'Connor10:26
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Bunting14:26
xG 1.27–1.40 (48%)attempts 24–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Graves13:41
xG 0.81–0.64 (56%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Graves – Joseph2:13
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Joseph – Ludvig6:27
xG 0.13–0.35 (27%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Joseph – Stützle13:56
xG 1.50–0.92 (62%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Katchouk – Kastelic – Smejkal4:27
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Pinto12:44
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Greig – Ostapchuk9:29
xG 0.18–0.51 (26%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Guenette14:34
xG 1.13–0.72 (61%)attempts 23–15goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub15:16
xG 1.12–0.92 (55%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Zub2:11
xG 0.15–0.07 (70%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).