Tue, Mar 12, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
San Jose Sharks 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 110 | 09 | 229 |
| PHI | 111 | 116 | 114 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:29PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 19:19SJSFilip ZadinaPPAssists: Luke Kunin, Alexander Barabanov · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 9:20PHIMorgan FrostPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Cam York · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 13:34SJSFilip ZadinaPPAssists: Luke Kunin, Klim Kostin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 5:09PHIOwen TippettGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Cam York · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:43SJSFabian Zetterlund: Holding2 min
- P1 4:39SJSGivani Smith: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:39PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:00PHIMorgan Frost: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:32PHITyson Foerster: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:42SJSThomas Bordeleau: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:24PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:00SJSJustin Bailey: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 9:52PHIEgor Zamula: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:41PHIGarnet Hathaway: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:40SJSHenry Thrun: Throwing equipment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKostin – Sturm – Bordeleau5:51
xG 0.52–0.09 (85%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Barabanov10:05
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Kunin – Zadina – Eklund8:21
xG 0.09–0.29 (23%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Bailey – Carpenter – Smith3:59
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- MacDonald – Addison7:34
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Burroughs2:13
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Thrun8:34
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Farabee – Brink5:55
xG 0.13–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Couturier – Tippett – Foerster2:11
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Gurianov5:24
xG 0.39–0.35 (52%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Cates8:22
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Zamula12:15
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York12:14
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Staal – Attard9:29
xG 0.46–0.47 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).