Tue, Mar 12, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Florida Panthers 4, Dallas Stars 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 111 | 39 | 430 |
| DAL | 114 | 210 | 06 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 7:48DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 8:11DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Mason Marchment · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 12:52FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 11:09FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Brandon Montour · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 14:00FLASam BennettAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Gustav Forsling · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 14:38FLAAleksander BarkovPPGWGAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:14FLAEetu Luostarinen: Interference2 min
- P1 10:24DALMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:03FLACarter Verhaeghe: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:34FLADmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:31DALMason Marchment: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:43FLAEetu Luostarinen: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:37FLACarter Verhaeghe: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:53DALJason Robertson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:28DALChris Tanev: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Okposo – Luostarinen – Lundell8:24
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Cousins – Stenlund – Lomberg6:27
xG 0.03–0.06 (38%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Barkov – Reinhart10:36
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk11:07
xG 0.61–0.94 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mikkola15:31
xG 0.83–0.61 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Mahura9:37
xG 0.15–0.28 (36%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Forsling15:31
xG 0.56–0.94 (37%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:32
xG 0.42–0.20 (67%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Faksa – Dellandrea6:44
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston10:52
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Duchene – Marchment – Steel9:51
xG 0.35–0.56 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley14:48
xG 0.90–0.38 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Tanev – Lindell15:17
xG 0.54–0.67 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Suter – Hakanpää11:45
xG 0.22–0.72 (24%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).