Thu, Mar 14, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
San Jose Sharks 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 29 | 110 | 013 | 332 |
| PIT | 110 | 217 | 34 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:28PITNoel AcciariAssists: Erik Karlsson, Drew O'Connor · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 14:31SJSFabian ZetterlundAssists: Calen Addison, Henry Thrun · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P1 19:01SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Klim Kostin, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 4:11PITJeff CarterAssists: Emil Bemstrom · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 11:34PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Drew O'Connor, Lars Eller · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 18:42SJSKlim KostinAssists: Mikael Granlund, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 2:38PITJohn LudvigGWGAssists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
- P3 4:38PITRickard RakellAssists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph, John Ludvig · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 18:04PITBryan RustENAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.72 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:41PITBryan Rust: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:06SJSFilip Zadina: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:17SJSCalen Addison: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:37PITMichael Bunting: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:37SJSKyle Burroughs: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:02PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Zetterlund – Barabanov13:31
xG 1.04–0.35 (75%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Kunin – Zadina – Eklund11:09
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
- Bailey – Carpenter – Labanc2:32
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Kostin – Sturm – Bordeleau7:12
xG 0.33–0.41 (44%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAddison – Thrun5:45
xG 0.71–0.04 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Thrun2:44
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Burroughs7:30
xG 0.27–0.09 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Acciari – Bemstrom7:44
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–19goals 1–0
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen7:05
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor3:30
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rakell – Bunting3:17
xG 0.07–0.20 (25%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Ludvig2:04
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Letang – Pettersson14:25
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Joseph2:09
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).