Thu, Mar 14, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 06 | 111 | 012 | 129 |
| CGY | 013 | 012 | 412 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:56VGKAnthony ManthaAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 4:00CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Dryden Hunt, Oliver Kylington · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 10:06CGYBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P3 14:45CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Dryden Hunt, Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 17:02CGYBlake ColemanENAssists: Mikael Backlund, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.57 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:30VGKAnthony Mantha: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:47CGYMatt Coronato: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:35CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:48VGKNicolas Hague: Interference2 min
- P3 10:55CGYOliver Kylington: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Roy9:17
xG 0.29–0.09 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Mantha – Howden7:23
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Amadio – Dorofeyev9:26
xG 0.35–0.54 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel12:14
xG 0.67–1.26 (35%)attempts 11–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Theodore – Hanifin2:17
xG 0.07–0.14 (35%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore14:59
xG 0.74–0.83 (47%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin14:56
xG 0.58–1.04 (36%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane13:24
xG 1.01–0.56 (64%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil15:05
xG 0.76–0.41 (65%)attempts 22–17goals 0–0
- Hunt – Sharangovich – Coronato10:07
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Rooney – Pelletier – Duehr4:16
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Kylington15:58
xG 0.87–0.56 (61%)attempts 16–20goals 1–0
- Pachal – Okhotiuk10:36
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Weegar – Miromanov16:59
xG 1.03–0.96 (52%)attempts 21–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).