Sat, Mar 16, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe
New Jersey Devils 1, Arizona Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 013 | 112 | 013 | 138 |
| ARI | 315 | 08 | 19 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:37ARIJ.J. MoserAssists: Sean Durzi, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 14:02ARIDylan GuentherPPGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 17:32ARILogan CooleyAssists: Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–3
- P2 7:01NJDNick DeSimoneAssists: Curtis Lazar, Jack Hughes · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 18:29ARIClayton KellerENAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.56 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:39NJDErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:02ARIMichael Kesselring: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:15NJDTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:18ARITravis Dermott: Interference2 min
- P3 3:14NJDKurtis MacDermid: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:14ARIJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Palat – Holtz4:43
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Bratt – Hischier – Hughes10:11
xG 0.68–0.48 (59%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Tierney – MacDermid – Nosek3:30
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hischier – Hughes – Mercer2:21
xG 0.18–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeSimone – Bahl10:27
xG 0.63–0.30 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Smith – Hatakka10:36
xG 0.62–0.34 (64%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Hughes – Nemec19:13
xG 0.88–0.70 (56%)attempts 24–15goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Crouse – Guenther – Cooley11:16
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
- O'Brien – McBain – Leonard6:49
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Carcone – Maccelli10:49
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – McBain5:12
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Moser13:24
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Brown – Dermott13:59
xG 0.59–0.90 (40%)attempts 9–21goals 1–0
- Välimäki – Kesselring14:37
xG 0.32–0.94 (25%)attempts 10–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).