Sat, Mar 16, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Montréal Canadiens 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 015 | 212 | 011 | 238 |
| CGY | 19 | 210 | 29 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:23CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Andrew Mangiapane · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 0:11CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Blake Coleman, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 7:41CGYMartin PospisilGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–3
- P2 10:34MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 18:25MTLDavid SavardAssists: Tanner Pearson, Rafael Harvey-Pinard · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 1:01CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Yegor Sharangovich · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 3:54CGYDaniil MiromanovAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:43MTLKaiden Guhle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:55CGYA.J. Greer: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:56MTLJayden Struble: Holding2 min
- P2 12:57CGYNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:50CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:50CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:50MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:55MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:16
xG 1.12–0.44 (72%)attempts 22–12goals 1–2
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans10:56
xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Pearson – White – Harvey-Pinard8:21
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Armia – Newhook – Roy11:01
xG 0.35–0.75 (32%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarris – Struble14:20
xG 1.18–0.09 (93%)attempts 28–5goals 0–0
- Savard – Xhekaj13:58
xG 0.50–0.84 (37%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Matheson – Guhle16:12
xG 0.43–0.86 (33%)attempts 19–20goals 0–3
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil10:55
xG 0.73–0.42 (64%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Hunt – Rooney – Sharangovich2:01
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:31
xG 0.44–0.56 (44%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Hunt – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko7:14
xG 0.30–0.52 (37%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Andersson – Kylington15:50
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
- Pachal – Okhotiuk11:50
xG 0.49–0.59 (45%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Weegar – Miromanov19:22
xG 0.90–1.26 (42%)attempts 20–28goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).