Sat, Mar 16, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Minnesota Wild 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 08 | 28 | 02 | 1 | 224 |
| STL | 011 | 112 | 113 | 01 | 2 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:49STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Jake Neighbours, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 0:27STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 1:10MINMarco RossiAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 16:01MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Zach Bogosian · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. STL Robert Thomas stopped
- 2. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 3. STL Jake Neighbours stopped
- 4. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 5. STL Brayden Schenn scored
- 6. MIN Matt Boldy scored
- 7. STL Jordan Kyrou scored
- 8. MIN Frederick Gaudreau stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:05STLKasperi Kapanen: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:05MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:49MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:08MINZach Bogosian: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:37STLNathan Walker: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:37MINMason Shaw: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:02STLBrandon Saad: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:02MINZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi4:32
xG 0.25–0.22 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Rossi10:20
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Hartman – Kaprizov – Boldy10:52
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Johansson – Hartman – Boldy5:02
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Chisholm12:27
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber17:26
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 17–23goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Brodin17:55
xG 0.91–1.48 (38%)attempts 22–25goals 2–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Saad – Kapanen10:49
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko6:58
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Neighbours – Bolduc8:11
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Schenn – Kyrou – Thomas12:14
xG 0.64–0.92 (41%)attempts 16–23goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko19:25
xG 0.62–0.34 (65%)attempts 20–22goals 1–1
- Faulk – Perunovich12:15
xG 0.82–0.56 (59%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug3:08
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).